France becomes clear-cut favorite to win World Cup, above Spain, Argentina, England – The New York Times

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Seven teams won their first two matches at the 2026 World Cup, and some of them were not even considered pre-tournament favorites. Two of the co-hosts, Mexico and the United States, are among this group, while powers like Spain, Portugal, Brazil and England have had draws that left something to the imagination.

All of the top eight favorites at the start of play (Spain, France, England, Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands) have at least four points and are extremely likely to advance to the knockout stage. However, only three of those (France, Argentina, Germany) have won both of their matches so far and have already clinched a place in the next round.

Even among those three, Germany hasn’t gotten a ton of style points. The Germans stuttered against Curaçao in a match that was tied 1-1 at the first hydration break and trailed at halftime against Ivory Coast before getting a 94th-minute winner.

With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see France and Argentina move up the odds boards since the start of the tournament. France is the clear favorite right now with odds ranging from +350 (7-to-2) to +400 (4-to-1) at the major sportsbooks.

Spain was the pre-tournament favorite, but a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde raised some concerns about the team’s ability to turn all of its possession into goals. A 4-0 win against Saudi Arabia, which featured Lamine Yamal’s first World Cup goal, returned things to normal. La Roja are second in the odds at +500 (5-to-1) on FanDuel and +550 (11-to-2) on DraftKings and BetMGM. That’s a subtle odds move compared to what the team came into the tournament with.

England and Argentina are next up on the title oddsboard. The Three Lions had a dull 0-0 draw against Ghana, which saw England fail to get a shot on target until nearly an hour into the match. Still, with four points, an impressive 4-2 win against Croatia already on the record and a meeting with an eliminated Panama side next, England is in a strong position to win its group. England is ahead of Argentina on FanDuel (+600 vs. +700), but the two are tied in the odds on DraftKings (+650, 13-to-2) and BetMGM (+600, 6-to-1).

Despite being defending champions, Argentina entered the tournament at +900 (9-to-1), behind four or five other teams, depending on where you looked. The stock is up after seeing Lionel Messi score five goals in the first two games. The goal barrage has him currently sitting as the favorite to win the Golden Boot. If Messi can still play at that level, Argentina belongs among the top tier of favorites.

Portugal was a trendy pre-tournament pick because of its incredibly stacked midfield featuring Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva and João Neves. This could be Portugal’s best team ever. However, a 1-1 draw against DR Congo that saw Cristiano Ronaldo struggle raised concerns. Ronaldo bounced back with two goals against Uzbekistan in a 5-0 win. All is well, for now, but Portugal’s stock is a bit down compared to two weeks ago.

Brazil’s stock is also down after a 1-1 draw with Morocco in its opener. Vinícius Júnior has scored in both matches so far, but Raphinha went down with a hamstring injury against Haiti and is expected to miss the last group match against Scotland. The Seleçao have odds ranging from 10-to-1 to 15-to-1 and are as low as eighth on the board at DraftKings, below Germany and the Netherlands.

Overall, the top eight have been in a tier of their own since before the tournament, and nothing has changed on that front yet. Even Norway, which is ninth in the odds at 28-to-1 on FanDuel and BetMGM and 30-to-1 on DraftKings, hasn’t moved up after winning both of its matches. The Vikings play France on Friday in a match that will decide the group winner. If Erling Haaland’s team can pull off that upset, Norway could move up into real contender status.

Last but not least, the biggest mover and surprise of the top 10 is the host Americans. The U.S. has won both of its matches by multiple goals, something only France and Argentina can also say. It feels weird to say the Americans are in an exclusive group with only France and Argentina, the last two World Cup winners that met in the 2022 final, but the U.S. has looked good.

To be clear, the Americans are still long shots to win the tournament at 28-to-1 on BetMGM and 33-to-1 on DraftKings and FanDuel, but it is a big shift to see the team ranked among the top 10 teams.