Preview: Ecuador vs Argentina – prediction, team news, lineups – Sports Mole

Argentina will wrap up their successful 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign when they travel to Guayaquil for Tuesday’s clash with Ecuador. 

The two nations have already sealed their places at next year’s tournament, with Argentina sitting in top spot in the standings while the hosts are in fourth position. 

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Match preview

Ecuador have comfortably qualified for a second successive World Cup despite carrying a three-point deduction into the qualifying cycle. 

El Tri have proven to be a tough team to beat in the qualifying campaign, having won seven, drawn eight and lost two of their 17 matches.

All eight of those draws have been goalless affairs, including each of their last four matches, meaning they have not been the best team to watch from a neutral perspective.

After playing out another stalemate in Thursday’s away clash with Paraguay, Ecuador have now gone four games without a goal since Enner Valencia netted a brace in March’s 2-1 victory over Venezuela.

While they have struggled in the final third, Sebastian Beccacece‘s side can be proud of the fact that they boast the best defensive record in the CONMEBOL qualifying section with just five goals conceded in 17 games.

They will need all of their defensive resilience if they are to stop the highest scorers in qualifying, with the hosts looking to record their first home victory over Argentina since winning 2-0 in a World Cup qualifier in June 2009.

Argentina will have the chance to defend their World Cup crown in 2026 after coasting through the qualifying campaign with a record of 12 wins, two draws and three defeats in 17 matches.

While qualification was secured back in March, Thursday’s home clash against Venezuela proved to be an emotional affair for Argentina’s all-time record scorer and appearance holder, Lionel Messi, who competed in his final competitive home match for his country. 

Messi played a starring role in Buenos Aires, netting either side of a Lautaro Martinez effort to fire Lionel Scaloni‘s charges to a commanding 3-0 victory.

As a result, Argentina have now racked up 31 goals across their 17 qualifying matches – seven more than the next best tally of Brazil. 

They will be looking to showcase that firepower once again, as they look to make it seven competitive games without defeat since they suffered a surprise loss to Paraguay in November 2024.

Argentina should fancy their chances of wrapping up their qualifying campaign with a victory, having won six of their last eight meetings with Ecuador in regulation time (D2) since suffering their most recent head-to-head defeat in October 2015. 

Ecuador World Cup Qualifying – South America form:

W W D D D D

Argentina World Cup Qualifying – South America form:

W W W W D W

Argentina form (all competitions):

W W W W D W

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Team News

Ecuador midfielder Alan Franco is available for selection following a one-match ban, but Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo will have to be assessed after he sat out the recent draw with Paraguay. 

In defence, new Arsenal signing Piero Hincapie is set to form a central defensive partnership with William Pacho, while Joel Ordonez and Pervis Estupinan should operate as the two full-backs.

At the opposite end of the pitch, Ecuador’s all-time record scorer, Valencia, will hope to end his country’s recent goal drought by adding to his 46-goal international tally. 

As for Argentina, Messi has confirmed that he has been given permission to skip Tuesday’s match after playing in his final home qualifier on Thursday.

The Inter Miami star, who recently returned from injury, has been given extra time to rest before he links back up with his club teammates. 

Inter’s Martinez is set to replace Messi in the starting lineup, while Leonardo Balerdi could come in for Tottenham Hotspur’s Cristian Romero, who is suspended after he collected his fourth yellow of the qualifying campaign.

Alexis Mac Allister was not risked on Thursday following his late arrival from Liverpool, but the midfielder is in contention to feature on the final matchday of World Cup qualifying. 

Ecuador possible starting lineup:

Galindez; Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie, Estupinan; Franco, Alcivar, Vite; Paez, Angulo, Valencia

Argentina possible starting lineup:

Martinez; Molina, Balerdi, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Gonzalez, De Paul, Paredes, Almada; Martinez, Alvarez

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We say: Ecuador 0-1 Argentina

Argentina may be unable to call upon Messi’s otherworldly talents, but they still boast a wealth of quality in their squad, and while Ecuador will be a tough nut to crack, we believe the visitors will do enough to claim a narrow victory in Thursday’s contest.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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