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Argentina could become a top-10 global copper producer in less than a decade if it solves a set of structural bottlenecks.
Rising global demand for electricity—and the transmission networks needed to support everything from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers to increasing cooling requirements—is fueling a significant surge in demand for copper. At a time when governments seek reliable and diversified sources of critical minerals, Argentina’s 17.1 million metric tons of proven copper reserves—around 1.8% of the world’s total reserves—represent a major economic and strategic opportunity.
If the nine major mining projects in advanced development move forward, Argentina could go from producing virtually no copper today to churning out 1.5 million metric tons by 2035, positioning the nation as one of the most promising new frontiers for the ubiquitous mineral.
The shift is bringing renewed focus to Argentina’s Andean area and the Cuyo region along the Chilean border, containing substantial but underdeveloped copper reserves. A history of macroeconomic instability, capital controls, and policy volatility has discouraged foreign investment in large-scale mining projects. But President Javier Milei’s macroeconomic stabilization efforts—combined with the new incentive framework for large investments known as the RIGI—are improving the investment climate as global demand for copper accelerates. These reforms are creating a window of opportunity that did not exist only a few years ago.
Global investors, especially those from the U.S., can benefit from this new scenario. Unlike in some other South American markets, especially in copper, the U.S. is not playing catch-up with China in Argentina. The same macroeconomic instability and policy distortions that held back the Argentine economy also, at least in part, discouraged large-scale Chinese investment, prompting Chinese firms to focus instead on manufacturing and mining opportunities in Brazil and Chile. However, Chinese capital is backing several lithium projects in Argentina, showing Beijing’s continued stake in premier Argentine mining jurisdictions such as Jujuy and Salta.
While the strong bilateral relationship between Buenos Aires and Washington offers additional reasons for optimism, some measures are needed to seize the window of opportunity as Argentina is one of the last underdeveloped copper frontiers aligned with Western markets.
Hurdles to overcome
Maximizing this moment will require overcoming several obstacles, starting with infrastructure. Most of Argentina’s largest copper deposits are in remote mountainous regions far from major ports and energy networks. Developing these resources will require substantial investment in roads and rail lines to move copper from these high-altitude regions to global markets. Shipments either across Argentina to Atlantic ports or over the Andes to Chile’s Pacific terminals will require improved transport corridors capable of handling heavy industrial traffic.
Energy supply is another obstacle. Large mining operations consume significant amounts of power, requiring new transmission lines and supporting energy infrastructure. Argentina’s vast Vaca Muerta shale formation offers a potential gas supply for mining operations, but pipelines and distribution networks will need to expand to reach remote sites.
Financing also presents a challenge. Mining projects need billions of dollars up front and years of development before they can start producing. In Argentina’s case, authorities estimate that over $28 billion is necessary to fund the nine projects under review. Western companies often face more stringent financing requirements than their government-backed rivals, which can delay project timelines.
Regulatory uncertainty also weighs on investment decisions. Argentina’s Glacier Protection Law restricts extractive activities in glacial and periglacial zones—areas that overlap with significant copper reserves. Last week, the lower house approved a reform that expands provincial authority over environmental protection, aiming to provide clearer rules for investors. The reform could more effectively support the responsible development of Argentina’s mining sector.
Coordinating international efforts
Overcoming these challenges will require greater coordination among governments, development finance institutions, and the private sector. Institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and the U.S. Export-Import Bank already have tools that could help accelerate investment in mining-related infrastructure through credit guarantees, concessional financing, and political risk insurance.
At the same time, Washington should ensure that its broader critical minerals strategy includes Argentina. As the Trump administration builds out policy tools to reduce China’s control over critical mineral supply chains—including the Export-Import Bank’s Project Vault, the State Department’s Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, and new investment priorities from the DFC—Argentina should be Washington’s partner of choice for rapidly scaling new Western-aligned production.
Likewise, as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative develops new trade tools for supply chain diversification, the U.S. should prioritize fleshing out the recently announced U.S.-Argentina critical minerals agreement. In addition to mining operations, Washington should explore opportunities for new mineral-processing investments in Argentina, the U.S., or wherever is most feasible.
Greater international coordination could also be beneficial. A dedicated working group comprising Argentina and G7 partners could focus on mining infrastructure and investment, helping to identify bottlenecks and align public and private funding. Equally important is maintaining local support for mining development through transparent engagement with provincial governments, local communities, and environmental stakeholders. Responsible mining practices and clear regulatory frameworks will be crucial to ensure that new projects progress with public backing.
For the U.S. and its partners, the benefits are clear: Supporting Argentina’s copper sector is an opportunity to strengthen the supply chains that will power the global energy transition. For Argentina, the payoff could be considerable. If projections are accurate, the country could be generating $17 billion in copper exports by 2035, or about a third of Argentina’s total agro-industrial exports in 2025 by point of comparison.
Argentina stands at an important moment. The country has the resources, the project pipeline, and growing investor interest. With the right policies and partnerships, it could become a major new source of copper at a time when the world urgently needs it.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Kezia McKeague
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McKeague is a managing director at McLarty Associates in Washington, DC. She is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Geoffrey Pyatt
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Pyatt is a senior managing director at McLarty Associates in Washington, DC. He is also a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.
Tags: Argentina, copper, FDI, Investments, mining
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Any opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Quarterly or its publishers.
