Brazil’s main opposition candidate seeks inspiration from Milei’s reform agenda in Argentina – BNamericas

Analysis

The main opposition presidential candidate in the Brazilian electoral race, Flávio Bolsonaro, is expected to draw inspiration from the economic reform agenda of Javier Milei’s administration in Argentina.

During a presentation to businesspeople this week, Daniella Marques, economic coordinator of Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign, said that Milei’s economic policy, the president of Argentina, is an example to be followed by Brazil.

“Milei is an excellent example in terms of regaining investment capacity and reducing bureaucracy and taxes,” said Marques during an event.

Bolsonaro’s economic adviser mentioned as potential measures to be implemented in Brazil the repeal of some taxes adopted by the current administration, as well as the reduction of bureaucracy and also of the size of the State in the economy, through a reduction in public spending.

Milei, who took office in December 2023, implemented a series of reforms aimed at reducing the size of the state in the economy and also seeking to cut red tape, in an effort to contain alarming inflation rates.

In Brazil today, economists have been advocating a review of government spending, which forces the Brazilian Central Bank to keep interest rates at high levels, leading to economic slowdown. 

However, despite signs of fiscal weakening by the government, the current inflation figures in Brazil remain well under control, compared with what was seen in Argentina at the time of Milei’s inauguration.

“Argentina in 2023 is quite different from Brazil in 2026, so fully replicating what Milei did in Argentina may not be a completely correct recipe. Obviously, when we talk about measures to strengthen the government’s fiscal side, this type of measure helps to generally improve the business environment, but making a generalized spending cut as was done in Argentina has to be viewed with great caution when being implemented in Brazil,” Argentine economist Roberto Troster, a former chief economist at the Brazilian Federation of Banks, Febraban, told BNamericas.

“An economic program cannot be based only on spending cuts; it has to be much more sophisticated, otherwise this takes a toll with the electorate. Argentina is going through this situation now, with Milei’s government approval ratings in negative territory”, said Troster.

Marques was a special advisor to Paulo Guedes, Brazil’s minister of the Economy during Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, father of the current candidate, between 2019 and 2022.

The then economic team strongly advocated reducing the role of the state in the economy, with cuts in public spending and also a broad privatization program.

The election

Flávio Bolsonaro is, so far, the main opposition candidate to the current leftist president Lula, who is seeking re-election.

The Brazilian electoral scenario is highly contentious, with recent polls showing the two candidates competing vote by vote for voters’ preference.

Brazilians will go to the polls in October. The first round is scheduled for October 4, when voters will choose the president, governors, senators, and federal, state, and district representatives. If no candidate for the Presidency or for state governor obtains more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, there will be a second round on October 25.

In July, Milei was in Brazil for the launch of Bolsonaro’s candidacy and, on that occasion, the Argentine president attacked the Brazilian president.

(The original version of this content was written in Portuguese.)

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