Argentine President Javier Milei plans to run for re-election in 2027, and although his popularity is low, he has shown more strength in polls than possible opponents. Photo by Juan Ignacio Roncoroni/EPA
BUENOS AIRES, Aug. 24 (UPI) — Argentine President Javier Milei confirmed over the weekend that he intends to seek re-election in 2027. Although he remains the best-positioned candidate, widespread dissatisfaction with his government and growing economic concerns could complicate his bid for a second term.
The latest voter-intention polls point to a more uncertain race. While most respondents say they would prefer a change in government, Milei maintains support of between 30% and 33%, driven by a loyal base that keeps him ahead of other potential candidates.
The economy is emerging as one of Milei’s main challenges. Although his government points to lower inflation and a stabilized exchange rate, a significant share of Argentines say their economic situation has worsened and household income is their top concern.
A CB Global Data poll found that 54.5% of respondents prefer a change in government, compared with 33.4% who want the current administration to continue.
Milei, however, leads among potential presidential candidates with 32.4% support. Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner follows with 15.2%, while Buenos Aires Province Gov. Axel Kicillof has 14.7%.
Fernández de Kirchner, one of Argentina’s leading opposition figures, is serving a six-year prison sentence under house arrest following a corruption conviction and is permanently barred from holding public office. Her defense is seeking to overturn the ban so she can run in 2027.
In a potential runoff, Milei would receive 44.8% of the vote compared with 39% for Fernández de Kirchner. Against Kicillof, Milei would receive 43% compared with 41.6% for the governor.
A separate poll by consulting firm Proyección found higher levels of dissatisfaction with the government. Among respondents, 53.3% rated the government’s performance as poor and 61.6% said its policies have had a negative impact.
Economic concerns dominate the dissatisfaction. About 47.2% of respondents cited household income as their top concern, while 68.3% said their economic situation had worsened in recent months.
The survey also showed a gap between voting intentions and the type of government Argentines want for the next presidential term. About 36.3% said they would vote for Milei and 32.3% backed Kicillof.
When asked what type of government they would prefer, however, 38.2% chose a new administration from another political movement aligned with Peronism, while 24.5% favored another Milei government.
Several political consultants told UPI that Milei’s prospects will depend heavily on the economy and on who emerges as the main opposition candidate.
Political scientist Cristian Buttié, director of CB Consultora, said Milei is losing support among voters who backed him in the second round of the 2023 presidential election.
Buttié said those voters do not have a firm commitment to the president, and “when people see that their economic situation is not improving, they begin to consider that Milei is not an electoral option for 2027.”
He said the outcome also will depend on the opposition’s leading candidate.
“Voters who are worn down and apathetic toward Milei” could ultimately choose even a candidate associated with the country’s political past, he said.
Buttié said he sees a first-round Milei victory as difficult, particularly as the president appears to be losing support in Buenos Aires Province, which accounts for 38% of Argentina’s national electorate.
According to CB Consultora, Milei’s approval rating in the province currently stands at 35.1%, making it a critical battleground in the presidential election.
Buttié said the government still has an opportunity to regain support if improvements in major economic indicators begin to reach households.
“Macroeconomic successes have to have an impact on people’s pocketbooks,” he said.
Consultant Hugo Haime said Milei’s political position has changed in recent months.
“At the beginning of the year, we would have said: He will definitely be re-elected. Three months later: He could be re-elected. Today we say: He could win, but he could also lose,” Haime said.
Haime said worsening economic conditions are eroding support for the president, and that 30% of Milei’s voters “are disappointed and believe the economic sacrifice is no longer worth it.” Milei’s electoral base has weakened and now stands at about 36%, he said.
Under current conditions, Haime expects a runoff election in which Milei would face a close contest.
The erosion of support is also evident among young people — a group that played a key role in Milei’s political rise. Haime said only 4 in 10 young people approve of the president’s performance.
Political scientist Ana Iparraguirre has also pointed to that shift. In a column published by Argentine news outlet Infobae, she said young people are among the groups most affected by the economic situation, and their support for Milei has weakened.
“Javier Milei’s economic model clearly hits young people much harder than the rest of Argentines. Unemployment among young people ages 14 to 29 is twice that of adults, and with nearly 4 in 10 young people in debt, they are the age group with the highest delinquency rate in the country,” she said.
Manuel Zunino, a sociologist and associate director of Proyección Consultores, said Milei has lost 6 percentage points in voting intention over the past six months across the different scenarios measured by the firm.
Zunino said the decline is primarily the result of shifting public priorities.
During the government’s initial period, most Argentines demanded order, stability and control of inflation. Now, the main concerns are income, wages and purchasing power.
“There is significant discontent related to that. For the government to build a competitive majority and improve its voting intention, there needs to be a tangible improvement in employment, economic activity and even wages,” he said.
Zunino said the current political environment differs from the 2025 elections. At the time, the government could still attribute some economic difficulties to conditions inherited from the previous Peronist administration and expectations for a recovery were higher. Now, voters are placing greater weight on the Milei government’s own record.
Still, Zunino said Milei remains competitive. Divisions among opposition groups and the absence of a candidate capable of consolidating sufficient support are keeping the governing coalition in the race.
Political consultant Carlos Fara offered a more favorable assessment of Milei’s chances of winning a second term.
Fara cited lower inflation and a stabilized exchange rate among the government’s main achievements but acknowledged that those gains have yet to fully translate into improvements in household finances.
“It is true that for several months, he has had more disapproval than approval, and that there is more pessimism than optimism about the future,” Fara said.
He identified consumer spending and employment as two of the main problems.
“The household economy has yet to take off and mass consumption remains very stagnant,” he said.
Fara said the situation is contributing to an increase in precarious employment and declining incomes.
He also said that depending on who becomes the opposition candidate, “many people could end up voting for Milei not so much because they like the current situation, but because they consider him the lesser evil.”
With the election still more than a year away, the trajectory of the economy, Milei’s ability to translate broader economic gains into tangible improvements for households and the selection of an opposition candidate will be key factors in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential race.
