Justin Marshall believes that the Springboks are “undercooked” heading into the first Test match against the All Blacks at Ellis Park on Saturday.
The likes of Eben Etzebeth, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Lood de Jager, Canan Moodie, Ethan Hooker and others returned from injury in South Africa’s final match against Argentina before Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Series games against the All Blacks. Meanwhile, Ox Nche and Franco Mostert could both feature in the fixtures against New Zealand, having last played in July.
While the All Blacks have been hit with injuries too, they aren’t lacking game time, with Dave Rennie utilising most of his squad in the matches against the South African United Rugby Championship teams, with only Will Jordan, Ardie Savea and Cam Roigard yet to make an appearance from the original touring 44.
Marshall says that Erasmus kept his cards close to his chest with the tactics they deployed against Los Pumas and claimed if they replicate that performance against New Zealand, they will get “smashed”.
Springboks are undercooked
Furthermore, he thinks that New Zealand have the upper hand as they will be sharper than the hosts in Johannesburg.
“The one advantage we have over the Springboks at the moment… the chat here is that we are better prepped,” the former scrum-half said on The Good, The Bad & Rugby Australia & New Zealand podcast.
“They had that Argentinian game where they 100% went out there with a game plan to show absolutely nothing to the All Blacks.
“If they play like that against us, we’d smash them by 30 points, given the fact that they kicked so much ball away and a lot of it reasonably aimlessly. Mngomezulu was playing his first game back; he was reluctant to attack.
“I think they were playing that game under instruction to give players like him, Etzebeth and co… who just needed some minutes.
“That’s what that game was all about; it was a bit of a rope-a-dope from South Africa and Rassie – they definitely won’t play like that but you think about that hit-out where those players needed minutes, and two of them, Etzebeth and Feinberg-Mngomezulu, will feature in the Tests – they are undercooked compared to us.”
All Blacks are better prepped
The former half-back added that Rennie’s charges faced sterner challenges during the Nations Championship than the Springboks who beat England, Scotland and Wales.
“We’ve had three tough Test matches, including the Italy one, which we had to work our way through for the Nations Championship, and we’ve had these three tour games where everybody’s been out there and they’ve been games at high intensity and with good tempo in them,” he continued.
“So we are going in better prepared. Now look, no doubt about it, they’ve got their knowledge of their starting 15 and 23 and their depth that they have, but as everyone knows, there’s nothing like playing together that gets rhythm. They don’t have that rhythm, whereas, yes, we haven’t put our Test side out there, but our players have been playing and playing good minutes.
“That’s the one area that they will be a little worried about, even though we could probably pick their starting 15 off the back of what’s been successful in the past. Rassie’s best side will go out at Ellis Park without a shadow of a doubt on Saturday.”
Kieran Read’s verdict
Marshall was joined on the podcast by ex-All Blacks captain Kieran Read, who argued that even though some of the players would be undercooked, experienced players like Etzebeth won’t need game minutes to find form.
“It is valid, but man, these guys are 100 Testers. These guys have been around for years, and their combinations are strong,” he said.
“Like they know each other back to front, and so they don’t need the games. They don’t need all that time together to get it right. This team understands each other so viscerally that they can put changes here and there, and it doesn’t matter because they’re that good across the board and in the way they play.
“I don’t see it; I’m not sure if it’s a hindrance for them or it’s an advantage because they’re going to come in fresh. Who knows? If I flip it to an All Blacks perspective and I go, ‘Okay, how do we beat this team, this juggernaut that’s been there for a few years?’”
Sir Steve Hansen: All Blacks have a ‘big advantage’ with the Springboks at their ‘most vulnerable’
Argentina provide the blueprint to beat the Boks
Erasmus’ side didn’t play particularly well against Felipe Contepomi’s Los Pumas but Read believes that the Argentines provided a blueprint as to how the All Blacks can get the better of the Springboks.
“Even though they didn’t put anything on the table in Argentina, Argentina showed us exactly how we should try to beat the Springboks. They found space on the edge,” Read added.
“They defend between the 15s, the South Africans, and they’re not going to go away from that DNA. There is space there; you’ve got to be willing to trust the pass and trust your depth to be able to get the ball there and create opportunities off the back of that because they will scramble and you might only make a 10m break down that sideline, but if you can get quick ball off that, it creates opportunities elsewhere.
“So, I think that Argies showed us a great blueprint: you get a quick ruck ball in the middle of the ruck, they don’t have a sweeper, they don’t play a traditional nine – it’s on.”
Benefit of being on the highveld for longer
Marshall countered, saying that altitude will play against the Springboks, with the All Blacks spending more time on the highveld than Erasmus’ side.
“I totally agree,” he said in response to Read.
“I guess probably the one thing that I would counter to that is, it’s quite surprising to me because I did ask the question; like, they also still do have that altitude fatigue.
“Usually they have the advantage of training here more often than the All Blacks. However, the All Blacks have actually been training at altitude for longer because of that Argentinian Test and the South Africans arriving later into the country.
“At the end of the day, half of the squad play at sea level for the majority of their rugby. So altitude also takes an adjustment from them, and when you’re low on minutes, and you’re playing at a tempo, the All Blacks will play at a tempo, they haven’t experienced. England don’t play at the same pace as the All Blacks; Scotland don’t really either, they do use the ball quite a bit more – those are the two staunchest challenges they had.
“They put Wales to the sword, but that was expected; the All Blacks would have been playing at a tempo that South Africa probably haven’t experienced so far this season. You’re absolutely right. Getting the ball to the edges is key because for all of those 100 Tests, there’s not young years in you; you’re not a young man anymore, and everyone gets fatigued.
“If you can fatigue those guys with ball movement, and I think that’s the All Blacks mindset, that they want to create fatigue in defence in particular by holding the ball, giving the ball width, and playing with pace. You can’t blitz continuously when you’re tired and when you’re on your heels, not on your toes.”
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Gassing the Springboks at altitude
There has been an ongoing narrative that New Zealand can run South Africa off their feet, and Marshall believes that the All Blacks can achieve that, having seen it happen back in 2022 when Ian Foster was in charge.
“A few years ago, we saw it. We lost the first Test in Nelspruit; we came down here as complete underdogs but moved the ball from all parts of the field, and Rassie had to replace his entire front row in about the 33rd minute – they were gassed, completely cooked,” he said.
“That’s what you’ve got to do to this Springboks side because they’re a juggernaut. They’re so well-drilled, they’ve got such great method, they’ve got good DNA, good combinations, but everybody folds when you’re tired. Everybody concedes when you’ve got no air left in your chest. So, that’s what I’m hoping the All Blacks are going into this game with, particularly those guys with low minutes: make them get into the hurt locker early.”
